Independent Watchdog
Does this market
have clear rules?
Verdict scores every active Polymarket market across six dimensions of resolution quality — in real time, before you trade. No black boxes. No discretion. Deterministic, documented, and free.
Live Index
8,610
Markets scanned
3
Critical-risk markets
212
High-risk or worse
6
Scored dimensions
Live Index
8,610
Markets scanned
3
Critical-risk markets
212
High-risk or worse
6
Scored dimensions
The Problem
Ambiguous rules are the source of every dispute.
Prediction markets resolve based on the written criteria in a market's description. When those criteria are vague, the resolution becomes a judgment call — and judgment calls become disputes.
Verdict applies a deterministic, six-dimension ruleset to every active market and produces a 0–100 clarity score before any money is at risk.
Read the full methodologyFramework
Six dimensions. One score.
Time Clarity
End date, timezone, and temporal constraint specificity — does the market tell you exactly when it resolves?
Resolution Source
Is the resolution authority named, institutional, and hierarchically specified? Or just "credible reporting"?
Outcome Definition
Is YES unambiguously defined? Binary outcomes with explicit criteria score highest.
Evidence Standard
Does the market specify accepted and excluded evidence? Ambiguity here is where disputes start.
Edge Case Handling
Delays, revisions, cancellations, late reporting — the markets that fail say nothing about these.
Post-Trade Risk
A composite of description depth, source completeness, and timing clarity. The overall structural risk.
Risk Scale
Four levels.
Instantly legible.
Every market gets a level. Critical means high dispute risk. Low means the rules are solid.
Low
80–100 pts
Well-specified resolution criteria. Low dispute risk.
Medium
60–79 pts
Some ambiguity. Review criteria before large positions.
High
40–59 pts
Significant concerns. Material dispute potential.
Critical
0–39 pts
Substantially underspecified. High risk for all participants.
Start with the markets that matter most.
Filter to Critical-risk markets — the lowest clarity scores, the highest potential for disputed resolutions.