About
Verdict
An independent watchdog for prediction market resolution quality.
Our Story
Verdict was born out of a real case of unfairness in the prediction market industry.
The project was founded by Hunter Guo, a 20-year-old second-year student at King's College London. After personally living through a highly controversial Polymarket settlement — a market resolved against what he believed was the clear spirit of its own rules — Hunter realized that individual users have almost no effective tools when facing opaque platform decisions.
For most traders, once a market is resolved unfairly, the options are bleak. You can complain on social media, send emails that may never be answered, or simply accept the loss. There is no public database of disputed resolutions, no structured way to preserve evidence, and no neutral place for affected users to document what happened.
Verdict was built to change that. Today, the live product is an independent clarity index: it scores every active Polymarket market on the quality of its written resolution rules, before any money is at risk. That is the part you can use right now.
The longer-term mission is bigger. We are building toward a non-profit, public-interest archive where users can record, preserve, and publish cases of unfair or controversial resolutions. The goal is not revenge — it is transparency: a public accountability layer that documents disputes, exposes unclear rules, and gives ordinary users a voice when platforms fail to listen.
Verdict is entirely public-interest driven. It issues no token, sells no financial products, and never encourages harassment or abuse. Its purpose is simple: protect users, preserve evidence, and push the industry toward fairer standards.
Roadmap
We believe in shipping transparently. Here is exactly where the product stands today.
Clarity index
Deterministic 0–100 scoring of every active Polymarket market across six dimensions, refreshed continuously and free to use.
Dispute archive
A structured submission flow and public, searchable archive of disputed resolutions, with evidence preservation and shareable case cards.
Historical tracking & open API
Score history over time, correlation between clarity scores and real dispute rates, and a documented public API for the community.
Mission
Prediction markets are a powerful mechanism for aggregating information — but they only work when participants can trust that outcomes will be resolved according to clear, pre-specified rules. When rules are ambiguous, resolutions become judgment calls, and judgment calls become disputes.
Verdict exists to surface that ambiguity before money is at risk. We score every active Polymarket market across six dimensions of resolution quality and publish those scores publicly, for free, with full methodology documentation.
We are not anti-prediction markets. We believe transparency about rule quality strengthens the ecosystem, reduces post-resolution conflict, and rewards operators who write careful, well-specified markets.
Over time, we aim to build a historical record of market resolution quality, track how scores correlate with actual dispute rates, and provide tooling for the broader prediction market community.
Principles
01
Deterministic
Every score is produced by the same documented ruleset. No human judgment, no black boxes. The same market, scored twice, produces the same result.
02
Transparent
The full scoring methodology is published. Every rule, every weight, every edge case. If you disagree with a rule, you can submit feedback.
03
Independent
Verdict has no financial relationship with Polymarket or any prediction market platform. We use only publicly available data from the Polymarket Gamma API.
04
Conservative
When in doubt, we flag it. A false positive (flagging a well-specified market) is a lower harm than a false negative (missing a genuinely ambiguous one).
Data Sources
Source
Polymarket Gamma API gamma-api.polymarket.com ↗
Coverage
Active, non-closed markets with non-zero volume
Refresh Rate
5-minute cache revalidation
Authentication
None — public read API only
Affiliation
None. Verdict is independent of Polymarket.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a low score mean?
A low score means the written resolution criteria are underspecified relative to the complexity of the event being measured. It does not mean the market is fraudulent or that it will be resolved incorrectly — only that the written rules leave room for interpretation.
Can scores be gamed?
To some extent, yes. A market operator could add verbose but meaningless text to inflate certain dimensions. Future versions of the model will incorporate resolution history and semantic analysis to reduce this. We document this limitation explicitly in the methodology.
How often is data updated?
Market data is fetched from the Polymarket Gamma API and cached for 5 minutes. Scores are recalculated on each data refresh. There is currently no historical score tracking.
Is this affiliated with Polymarket?
No. Verdict is entirely independent. We use only the public Gamma API, which requires no authentication for read access. We have no commercial relationship with Polymarket.
How do I report a disputed resolution?
Use the Submit Dispute form. We collect structured case information for documentation and analysis. Submission does not initiate any legal action. Anonymized cases may be published in the public interest.
What markets does Verdict cover?
Currently, Verdict covers active, non-closed markets on Polymarket with non-zero trading volume. Markets are fetched sorted by volume, up to 500 at a time, and refreshed every 5 minutes.
Disclaimer
Verdict scores are heuristic estimates produced by a deterministic text-analysis model. They are not legal advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. A high score does not guarantee correct or fair resolution. A low score does not mean a market will be resolved incorrectly.
Verdict is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or in any commercial relationship with Polymarket or any other prediction market platform.