Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
0
Low
- No material regulatory dependency detected
Medium Risk
Some ambiguity present. Human review recommended before large positions.
Moderate rule clarity (63/100). The market is generally well-structured with solid time clarity and outcome definition. Note: No explicit resolution source URL or reference provided. Ambiguity is limited but traders should review the full resolution criteria before trading.
Independent from the Rule Clarity Score
Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
0
Low
Trading liquidity
Execution quality based on depth, turnover, lifetime volume, and quoted spread. Higher means easier entry and exit.
50
Medium
Six weighted criteria
Time Clarity
How clearly the resolution deadline and time parameters are defined.
Resolution timeline is explicitly defined with a specific date and time reference.
20/20
Resolution Source
Whether an authoritative, verifiable data source is named.
A resolution source is indicated but lacks specificity or a verifiable URL.
9/20
Outcome Definition
How precisely the YES/NO resolution conditions are specified.
Outcome conditions are precisely defined with explicit YES/NO resolution criteria.
18/20
Evidence Standard
Whether acceptable and excluded evidence types are documented.
Evidence standards are implied by context but not formally defined.
5/15
Edge Case Handling
Coverage of delays, revisions, cancellations, and disputed data.
Basic edge cases may be implied but are not explicitly documented in the rules.
5/15
Post-Trade Risk
Risk of retroactive re-interpretation after the market closes.
Moderate post-trade risk — some resolution criteria could be interpreted differently.
6/10
How this market settles
No on-chain dispute record available
Polymarket markets resolve via the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. The Gamma API did not return dispute metadata for this market, so no challenge history can be confirmed here.
Volume
$33K
24h Change
—
Liquidity
$36K
24h Volume
$125
End Date
December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
Resolution Source
No authoritative source is named for resolving this market. This increases the risk of subjective or disputed resolution outcomes.
Run a semantic analysis of this market's resolution criteria using an LLM. The AI identifies logical contradictions, ambiguous language, and missing definitions that rule-based scoring may miss.
Deterministic score: 63/100 · Risk level: Medium
0 votes cast
Sign in to add your assessment of this market's resolution risk.
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,500 by end of December?
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,000 by end of December?
Description
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Outcomes