Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
56
High
- Election or political office
- Government or regulator action
Medium Risk
Some ambiguity present. Human review recommended before large positions.
Moderate rule clarity (63/100). The market is generally well-structured with solid time clarity and outcome definition. Note: No explicit resolution source URL or reference provided. Ambiguity is limited but traders should review the full resolution criteria before trading.
Independent from the Rule Clarity Score
Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
56
High
Trading liquidity
Execution quality based on depth, turnover, lifetime volume, and quoted spread. Higher means easier entry and exit.
15
Critical
Six weighted criteria
Time Clarity
How clearly the resolution deadline and time parameters are defined.
Resolution timeline is explicitly defined with a specific date and time reference.
20/20
Resolution Source
Whether an authoritative, verifiable data source is named.
A resolution source is indicated but lacks specificity or a verifiable URL.
9/20
Outcome Definition
How precisely the YES/NO resolution conditions are specified.
Outcome conditions are precisely defined with explicit YES/NO resolution criteria.
18/20
Evidence Standard
Whether acceptable and excluded evidence types are documented.
Evidence standards are implied by context but not formally defined.
5/15
Edge Case Handling
Coverage of delays, revisions, cancellations, and disputed data.
Basic edge cases may be implied but are not explicitly documented in the rules.
5/15
Post-Trade Risk
Risk of retroactive re-interpretation after the market closes.
Moderate post-trade risk — some resolution criteria could be interpreted differently.
6/10
How this market settles
Resolution status available
Gamma exposes a resolution status for this market (shown below).
Volume
$4K
24h Change
-0.5pp
Liquidity
$0
24h Volume
—
End Date
July 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
Resolution Source
No authoritative source is named for resolving this market. This increases the risk of subjective or disputed resolution outcomes.
Run a semantic analysis of this market's resolution criteria using an LLM. The AI identifies logical contradictions, ambiguous language, and missing definitions that rule-based scoring may miss.
Deterministic score: 63/100 · Risk level: Medium
0 votes cast
Sign in to add your assessment of this market's resolution risk.
Matched by topic and entities
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
Will the next UK election be called by March 31?
Will the next UK election be called by June 30?
Will the next UK election be called by December 31?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcomes