Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
20
Low
- Geopolitical or state actor
Medium Risk
Some ambiguity present. Human review recommended before large positions.
Moderate rule clarity (63/100). The market is generally well-structured with solid time clarity and outcome definition. Note: No explicit resolution source URL or reference provided. Ambiguity is limited but traders should review the full resolution criteria before trading.
Independent from the Rule Clarity Score
Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
20
Low
Trading liquidity
Execution quality based on depth, turnover, lifetime volume, and quoted spread. Higher means easier entry and exit.
40
High
Six weighted criteria
Time Clarity
How clearly the resolution deadline and time parameters are defined.
Resolution timeline is explicitly defined with a specific date and time reference.
20/20
Resolution Source
Whether an authoritative, verifiable data source is named.
A resolution source is indicated but lacks specificity or a verifiable URL.
9/20
Outcome Definition
How precisely the YES/NO resolution conditions are specified.
Outcome conditions are precisely defined with explicit YES/NO resolution criteria.
18/20
Evidence Standard
Whether acceptable and excluded evidence types are documented.
Evidence standards are implied by context but not formally defined.
5/15
Edge Case Handling
Coverage of delays, revisions, cancellations, and disputed data.
Basic edge cases may be implied but are not explicitly documented in the rules.
5/15
Post-Trade Risk
Risk of retroactive re-interpretation after the market closes.
Moderate post-trade risk — some resolution criteria could be interpreted differently.
6/10
How this market settles
No on-chain dispute record available
Polymarket markets resolve via the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. The Gamma API did not return dispute metadata for this market, so no challenge history can be confirmed here.
Volume
$12K
24h Change
—
Liquidity
$20K
24h Volume
—
End Date
October 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
Resolution Source
No authoritative source is named for resolving this market. This increases the risk of subjective or disputed resolution outcomes.
Run a semantic analysis of this market's resolution criteria using an LLM. The AI identifies logical contradictions, ambiguous language, and missing definitions that rule-based scoring may miss.
Deterministic score: 63/100 · Risk level: Medium
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcomes