Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
0
Low
- No material regulatory dependency detected
Low Risk
Resolution criteria are well-specified with low post-trade dispute risk.
Strong rule clarity (81/100). This market scores well across time clarity and resolution source. Traders can have high confidence that the resolution criteria are unambiguous and verifiable.
Independent from the Rule Clarity Score
Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
0
Low
Trading liquidity
Execution quality based on depth, turnover, lifetime volume, and quoted spread. Higher means easier entry and exit.
7
Critical
Six weighted criteria
Time Clarity
How clearly the resolution deadline and time parameters are defined.
Resolution timeline is explicitly defined with a specific date and time reference.
20/20
Resolution Source
Whether an authoritative, verifiable data source is named.
Resolution source is explicitly named and authoritative.
20/20
Outcome Definition
How precisely the YES/NO resolution conditions are specified.
Outcome conditions are precisely defined with explicit YES/NO resolution criteria.
18/20
Evidence Standard
Whether acceptable and excluded evidence types are documented.
Some evidence guidance is provided; acceptable data sources are referenced.
8/15
Edge Case Handling
Coverage of delays, revisions, cancellations, and disputed data.
Some edge cases are considered; postponement or revision scenarios are referenced.
8/15
Post-Trade Risk
Risk of retroactive re-interpretation after the market closes.
Post-trade risk is low; resolution depends on publicly verifiable events.
7/10
How this market settles
No on-chain dispute record available
Polymarket markets resolve via the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. The Gamma API did not return dispute metadata for this market, so no challenge history can be confirmed here.
Volume
$894.918577
24h Change
+7.0pp
Liquidity
$494.8619
24h Volume
$5.1
End Date
December 31, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Run a semantic analysis of this market's resolution criteria using an LLM. The AI identifies logical contradictions, ambiguous language, and missing definitions that rule-based scoring may miss.
Deterministic score: 81/100 · Risk level: Low
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Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (LOW) in December?
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in December?
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,000 (HIGH) in December?
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $10,000 (HIGH) in December?
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in December?
Outcomes