Medium

Will Person BH win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

60out of 100

Medium Risk

Some ambiguity present. Human review recommended before large positions.

Moderate rule clarity (60/100). The market is generally well-structured with solid time clarity and outcome definition. Note: No explicit resolution source URL or reference provided. Ambiguity is limited but traders should review the full resolution criteria before trading.

No explicit resolution source URL or reference provided.
Resolution source relies on vague terms such as "credible reporting" or "substantial evidence".

Score Breakdown

Six weighted criteria

Time Clarity

How clearly the resolution deadline and time parameters are defined.

Resolution timeline is explicitly defined with a specific date and time reference.

20/20

Resolution Source

Whether an authoritative, verifiable data source is named.

Resolution source is absent or relies on vague, unverifiable references.

6/20

Outcome Definition

How precisely the YES/NO resolution conditions are specified.

Outcome conditions are precisely defined with explicit YES/NO resolution criteria.

18/20

Evidence Standard

Whether acceptable and excluded evidence types are documented.

Evidence standards are implied by context but not formally defined.

5/15

Edge Case Handling

Coverage of delays, revisions, cancellations, and disputed data.

Basic edge cases may be implied but are not explicitly documented in the rules.

5/15

Post-Trade Risk

Risk of retroactive re-interpretation after the market closes.

Moderate post-trade risk — some resolution criteria could be interpreted differently.

6/10

Resolution & Oracle

How this market settles

No on-chain dispute record available

Polymarket markets resolve via the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. The Gamma API did not return dispute metadata for this market, so no challenge history can be confirmed here.

Resolution oracle: 0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d
Condition ID: 0x9f9249118de57e5229fcc2eb40365e67980e200d30f909b50e7c81910f0636e3

Market Details

Volume

24h Change

—

Liquidity

24h Volume

—

End Date

November 7, 2028 at 12:00 AM UTC

Resolution Source

Not specified

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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