Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
84
Critical
- Government or regulator action
- Military conflict or intervention
- Policy implementation dependency
High Risk
Significant rule clarity concerns. Material dispute risk exists.
Elevated rule clarity risk (53/100). Key concerns: No explicit resolution source URL or reference provided. Resolution source relies on vague terms such as "credible reporting" or "substantial evidence". Traders should carefully evaluate the resolution criteria before entering a position.
Independent from the Rule Clarity Score
Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
84
Critical
Trading liquidity
Execution quality based on depth, turnover, lifetime volume, and quoted spread. Higher means easier entry and exit.
29
High
Six weighted criteria
Time Clarity
How clearly the resolution deadline and time parameters are defined.
Resolution timeline is explicitly defined with a specific date and time reference.
16/20
Resolution Source
Whether an authoritative, verifiable data source is named.
Resolution source is absent or relies on vague, unverifiable references.
6/20
Outcome Definition
How precisely the YES/NO resolution conditions are specified.
Outcome conditions are precisely defined with explicit YES/NO resolution criteria.
18/20
Evidence Standard
Whether acceptable and excluded evidence types are documented.
No evidence standards specified — resolution criteria rely on subjective judgment.
2/15
Edge Case Handling
Coverage of delays, revisions, cancellations, and disputed data.
Basic edge cases may be implied but are not explicitly documented in the rules.
5/15
Post-Trade Risk
Risk of retroactive re-interpretation after the market closes.
Moderate post-trade risk — some resolution criteria could be interpreted differently.
6/10
How this market settles
No on-chain dispute record available
Polymarket markets resolve via the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. The Gamma API did not return dispute metadata for this market, so no challenge history can be confirmed here.
Volume
$10
24h Change
—
Liquidity
$38.4978
24h Volume
$10
End Date
December 31, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
Resolution Source
No authoritative source is named for resolving this market. This increases the risk of subjective or disputed resolution outcomes.
Run a semantic analysis of this market's resolution criteria using an LLM. The AI identifies logical contradictions, ambiguous language, and missing definitions that rule-based scoring may miss.
Deterministic score: 53/100 · Risk level: High
0 votes cast
Sign in to add your assessment of this market's resolution risk.
Matched by topic and entities
Will the next UK election be called by December 31?
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,500 by end of December?
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The East-West oil pipeline refers to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline (also known as Petroline), which carries crude oil from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, including its pumping stations. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts the East-West oil pipeline. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on the East-West oil pipeline do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact the East-West oil pipeline if it directly impacts the pipeline or any of its pumping stations. The occurrence and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Riyadh Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia and a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcomes