Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
80
Critical
- State-on-state military escalation
- Military conflict or intervention
- Geopolitical or state actor
Medium Risk
Some ambiguity present. Human review recommended before large positions.
Moderate rule clarity (56/100). The market is generally well-structured with solid time clarity and outcome definition. Note: No explicit resolution source URL or reference provided. Ambiguity is limited but traders should review the full resolution criteria before trading.
Independent from the Rule Clarity Score
Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
80
Critical
Trading liquidity
Execution quality based on depth, turnover, lifetime volume, and quoted spread. Higher means easier entry and exit.
78
Low
Six weighted criteria
Time Clarity
How clearly the resolution deadline and time parameters are defined.
Resolution timeline is explicitly defined with a specific date and time reference.
20/20
Resolution Source
Whether an authoritative, verifiable data source is named.
Resolution source is absent or relies on vague, unverifiable references.
1/20
Outcome Definition
How precisely the YES/NO resolution conditions are specified.
Outcome is clear and binary; resolution conditions are described in the text.
15/20
Evidence Standard
Whether acceptable and excluded evidence types are documented.
Some evidence guidance is provided; acceptable data sources are referenced.
9/15
Edge Case Handling
Coverage of delays, revisions, cancellations, and disputed data.
Basic edge cases may be implied but are not explicitly documented in the rules.
5/15
Post-Trade Risk
Risk of retroactive re-interpretation after the market closes.
Moderate post-trade risk — some resolution criteria could be interpreted differently.
6/10
How this market settles
No on-chain dispute record available
Polymarket markets resolve via the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. The Gamma API did not return dispute metadata for this market, so no challenge history can be confirmed here.
Volume
$214K
24h Change
-2.0pp
Liquidity
$26K
24h Volume
$7K
End Date
December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC
Resolution Source
No authoritative source is named for resolving this market. This increases the risk of subjective or disputed resolution outcomes.
Run a semantic analysis of this market's resolution criteria using an LLM. The AI identifies logical contradictions, ambiguous language, and missing definitions that rule-based scoring may miss.
Deterministic score: 56/100 · Risk level: Medium
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcomes