Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
80
Critical
- State-on-state military escalation
- Military conflict or intervention
- Geopolitical or state actor
Medium Risk
Some ambiguity present. Human review recommended before large positions.
Moderate rule clarity (55/100). The market is generally well-structured with solid time clarity and outcome definition. Note: No explicit resolution source URL or reference provided. Ambiguity is limited but traders should review the full resolution criteria before trading.
Independent from the Rule Clarity Score
Regulatory sensitivity
Exposure to political, legal, or government-dependent outcomes. Higher means more external intervention risk.
80
Critical
Trading liquidity
Execution quality based on depth, turnover, lifetime volume, and quoted spread. Higher means easier entry and exit.
67
Medium
Six weighted criteria
Time Clarity
How clearly the resolution deadline and time parameters are defined.
Resolution timeline is explicitly defined with a specific date and time reference.
20/20
Resolution Source
Whether an authoritative, verifiable data source is named.
Resolution source is absent or relies on vague, unverifiable references.
1/20
Outcome Definition
How precisely the YES/NO resolution conditions are specified.
Outcome conditions are precisely defined with explicit YES/NO resolution criteria.
18/20
Evidence Standard
Whether acceptable and excluded evidence types are documented.
Evidence standards are implied by context but not formally defined.
5/15
Edge Case Handling
Coverage of delays, revisions, cancellations, and disputed data.
Basic edge cases may be implied but are not explicitly documented in the rules.
5/15
Post-Trade Risk
Risk of retroactive re-interpretation after the market closes.
Moderate post-trade risk — some resolution criteria could be interpreted differently.
6/10
How this market settles
No on-chain dispute record available
Polymarket markets resolve via the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. The Gamma API did not return dispute metadata for this market, so no challenge history can be confirmed here.
Volume
$47K
24h Change
-0.5pp
Liquidity
$55K
24h Volume
$36K
End Date
January 1, 2028 at 04:59 AM UTC
Resolution Source
No authoritative source is named for resolving this market. This increases the risk of subjective or disputed resolution outcomes.
Run a semantic analysis of this market's resolution criteria using an LLM. The AI identifies logical contradictions, ambiguous language, and missing definitions that rule-based scoring may miss.
Deterministic score: 55/100 · Risk level: Medium
0 votes cast
Sign in to add your assessment of this market's resolution risk.
Will the next UK election be called by December 31?
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,500 by end of December?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcomes